Relations with Russia seem to be at an all time low. Not since the collapse of the Soviet Union have our interactions with the Russians been so wrought with mistrust and not since the Cold war has the dialogue been so overtly vile. The situation deteriorated further on Wednesday, when the Russian State Duma—or lower house—voted to suspend Russian membership to the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).
This does not really come as a surprise, seeing as President Putin announced in June the likelihood of this occurrence. Why, then are Western strategists so concerned? Simply put, we have no idea what is happening in Russia. There is only one person in the entire world, that has any concept of where the mother bear is headed, and that is President Vladimir Putin. Everyone else is just a spectator, which naturally instills fear into those strategists.
With Duma elections approaching on December 2, and the deadline for Kosovo the week after that, recent events should be of little surprise. Another week after the Kosovo decision, and the Security Council Permanent Five plus Germany are due to meet to discuss sanctions on Iran. Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE is simply another step in a long train of nationalistic actions designed to reign in support for the United Russia party and the Putin administration. Indeed, now that Putin has agreed to head the party list in December, their fates have become intertwined.
The Duma voted 418-0 to leave the CFE because anyone that did not stand with the motherland would have swiftly been voted out of office. For the current band of misfits and hooligans that comprise Russian parliament the forfeiture of immunity that such action would entail is unacceptable. It is sad to see a country we had so much hope for fifteen years ago reduced to an authoritarian breeding ground, but there is still a way out. Ironically, that is to allow Putin to run his course.
Despite the totalitarian hand that President Putin’s tenure has been marred by, he was still the right man at the right time. He has taken what was a sinking ship and restored it to operational status. Sadly, there is still unrest and a whisper of mutiny in several of the ships cabins, which has caused her skipper to roll out the long range guns and drum up a battle cry in order to divert public attention away from the internal struggles of his supposedly stout vessel.
Putin may not be the number one Western choice, and his policies certainly do not always represent “Western” democratic values, but he is currently the best person we have to work with if we hope to institute democratic change. He knows this, now we must as well. If President Putin sincerely wanted to undermine the Russian democratic system, he could just stay in office, what difference would it make? Instead he wishes it to remain legitimate, so he will step down. A move to the Prime Minister position would still allow him to make positive changes and allow for some predictability—on the part of the west—as to where the country is going. Western strategists should look upon this with favor, and watch how the rest plays out.
Russian withdrawal from a treaty viewed by many in Europe as the cornerstone of European security is unnerving. More worrisome is that it comes at the tail end of six solid months of Russian saber rattling and a month before the critical vote on Kosovo’s future. Russia has remained adamant that it will not support or allow any decision contrary Belgrade’s wishes. Furthermore, the Russians have demanded the US suspend its agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic regarding missile defense in favor of a joint program with the Russians in Azerbaijan. It is time to utilize these extremely important issues as a median to secure stronger relations with Russia.
The real issue for the US is Kosovo and the support of a democratic state there. The real interest for Russia—even though some may argue there are important parallels between Kosovo and Chechnya—is to ensure the US does not encroach too far into its back yard with missile defense. Therefore, it is time to make a stand of our own. When the time comes, probably just after the December 2 Duma elections, the US should announce its support for Kosovar independence. Russia must realize they do not always get what they want, this is a real world, and we all lose sometimes. Of course the process is complicated, as the US would need the support of the major powers in Europe, and surely Russia would be expected to voice opposition, but they would have swallow the deal. In return, the US should agree to the establishment of a joint missile defense venture in Azerbaijan, and to announce the indefinite suspension of its agreements in Poland and the Czech Republic. The final straw would be that we allow the Russians to announce this message prior to the December 2 elections.
The reality of the situation is that such actions would in no way weaken our position in Central Europe, in fact it may strengthen it. Public opinion in both Poland and the Czech Republic is strongly against the construction of a missile defense system in their countries. This decision could serve to mend rifts in NATO and the EU. Certainly smaller divides would arise regarding the Kosovo decision, but they would be short lived. Additionally, independence for Kosovo can be taken as a fundamentally different case than Chechnya, and with such extensive state control over media outlets the Russian government should have no problem spinning the story whichever way they want. In the end, the agreement would probably be harder for the Russians to swallow than for us, but if we additionally agree to tone down the dialogue regarding democratic practices in Russia, it could be a success.
No one knows precisely where Russia is headed, but one thing is certain: it is far better to have the bear on your side, than to know you will eventually have to fight him. The former could bring peace, the latter is what led to the Cold War.
